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Lebanon's Outnumbered Maronites Pull Stops on Voting Age

BEIRUT (AFP) -- In a country where 18-year-olds can drive, marry and serve in the army, allowing them to vote would generally be applauded as a boon for democracy. But not so in Lebanon.

A move to lower the voting age from 21 to 18 has sparked fears of a shake-up of Lebanon's political structure, a complex power-sharing system between Christians and Muslims that has helped preserve a fragile peace since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

The fear resonates most strongly within Lebanon's once-dominant Maronite Christian community, today estimated at around 30 percent of the four-million population.

"Christians fear the numbers," Paul Salem, who heads the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre, told AFP.

"Mainly it is a fear that lowering the voting age might be the first step in rethinking the entire political structure."

The thorny issue may be put to the test at a parliament session on Monday, almost one year after MPs approved draft legislation to cut the age from 21 to 18.

But there are no guarantees that legislators will turn up for the vote.

Once a political and military force to be reckoned with, Maronites pride themselves as being founders of Lebanon, which has not had an official census since 1932.

But their leverage has steadily eroded since the civil war broke out 35 years ago as low fertility and high emigration rates took their toll.

"Lebanon of the 20th century started with a heavy Christian presence, dropped to a six-to-five ratio, then to a 50-50 (power) share" between Christians and Muslims, Salem said.

"The next step is not so good for Christians."

The 1989 Taif Accord ended Lebanon's devastating civil war and formalised the guarantee of a share in power for the country's many minorities.

The accord gave Maronites the presidency but stripped the post of many of its powers. It also allocated the prime minister's post to Sunni Muslims and Shiite Muslims the position of parliament speaker.

Seats in government and parliament were evenly divided between Muslims and Christians.

Prime Minister Saad Hariri's office on Sunday highlighted comments he made to Italy's Corriere Della Sera newspaper during a weekend visit to the Vatican, apparently aimed at soothing Christian fears.

"We have parity between Christians and Muslims, and it will stay forever. Lebanon is the only country in the Arab world that has a Christian president ... I want to reassure the Christians that we are one," Hariri said.

However, experts say the Maronites today fear the voting age "reform" could be the first step towards demands for direct popular representation in Lebanon, which does not follow a "one person, one vote" formula.

"Today, equal power-sharing is still guaranteed constitutionally and Muslims are voicing support for that guarantee," columnist Edmond Saab wrote in the newspaper As-Safir.

"But with the realisation that their community in Lebanon is shrinking, many Christians are considering whether, in a few generations, Muslims will start questioning why they should continue to give Christians half when they are a minority."

Unlike Lebanon's more politically homogeneous Shiite and Sunni Muslim camps, Maronites divide their loyalty between a US- and Saudi-backed alliance led by Hariri and a Hezbollah-led coalition backed by Syria and Iran.

And while they disagree on many political issues, Maronite MPs are united in one demand.

Banking on their diaspora to balance out shifting internal demographics, they are pushing for Lebanon to allow expatriates to cast ballots abroad if the voting age is lowered.

Lebanon's diaspora is estimated to number at least double its population. Expats above the age of 21 who hold Lebanese citizenship are already listed in the interior ministry's registry. Just over a third of them are Christian.

Analysts estimate that lowering the voting age would add more than 50,000 Christians to the electorate, mainly Maronites, and about 175,000 Muslims, roughly equally split between Shiites and Sunnis.

While the change could tip the scale in a handful of swing districts, it would make little difference in the overall election outcome and the reality of Lebanese politics, according to analysts.

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Tags: Youth Rights